A Photo by Mika Baumeister on Unsplash
As of February 2025, Core Logic has released its latest insights on US home prices, reflecting data through December 2024 and providing forecasts through December 2025.
Home Price Trends
Nationwide, home prices, including distressed sales, saw a year-over-year increase of 3.4% in December 2024 compared to December 2023. On a month-over-month basis, there was a slight increase of 0.03% from November to December 2024. Core Logic ensures accuracy by incorporating newly released public data into their results.
National Forecast
Looking ahead, the Core Logic HPI Forecast predicts a minor drop of 0.2% in home prices from December 2024 to January 2025. However, on a year-over-year basis, home prices are expected to rise by 4.1% from December 2024 to December 2025.
Market Dynamics
Despite improvements in housing supply throughout most of 2024, buyer demand remained subdued, resulting in a steady 3.4% growth in home prices since September. However, the forecast suggests an uptick in home price growth, hinting at a robust spring home buying season.
While this growth is promising, it also poses challenges for affordability. The Northeast continues to experience strong home price growth, with states like Arkansas, Oklahoma, and Missouri reaching new price records. The median sales price for single-family homes in the US climbed to $390,000 in December 2024.
Influencing Factors
Several factors are influencing the market. Proposed tariffs by the Trump administration and the devastating wildfires in Los Angeles County in January are expected to increase building material costs and delay construction times. These costs will likely be passed on to homebuyers and property owners.
Dr. Selma Hepp, Chief Economist for Core Logic, notes that home prices have remained flat since the housing market slowed down last summer. The Northeast has driven appreciation growth due to low inventories, while Southern markets have adjusted to higher inventories and increased variable mortgage costs. The Mountain West markets are also cooling as they seek stability after the surge in mortgage rates and price declines from pandemic highs. Despite these challenges, home prices increased by about 4.5% in 2024, slightly higher than the 4.1% increase in 2023. With improving inventories and elevated mortgage rates, forecasts suggest a smaller overall increase in prices for 2025.
Regional Insights
Nationally, home prices increased by 3.4% year-over-year in December. Hawaii and the District of Columbia saw annual declines of 1.1% and 0.7%, respectively. Connecticut and New Jersey posted the highest year-over-year increases at 7.8% and 7.7%.
Metro Area Highlights
The Core Logic HPI tracks home price changes across various market segments. In December 2024, Chicago saw the highest year-over-year gain among large US metros at 5.6%. Las Vegas was second at 5% and Boston was third at 4.6%.
Markets at Risk
The Core Logic Market Risk Indicator (MRI) identifies markets at risk of home price declines. Provo-Orem, UT, Tucson, AZ, Albuquerque, NM, Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale, AZ, and West Palm Beach-Boca Raton-Delray Beach, FL, are all at a very high risk of price declines over the next 12 months.
Summary
Core Logic’s HPI offers comprehensive coverage, including non-disclosure state data, built from industry-leading real estate public records, servicing, and securities databases. The index provides multi-tier market evaluations based on various factors, helping clients understand price movements in specific segments. Updated monthly, the index offers the fastest home-price valuation information in the industry, ensuring the most accurate indication of home-price movements.